Expert Opinion
Georghii Kukhaleishvili
analyst
Association of Milk Producers

Global Dairy Market Seeks Balance

Global economic challenges, trade disputes, and production hurdles may compel dairy market operators to gradually re-evaluate their activities in the second half of 2025. Dairy fat…

Georghii Kukhaleishvili
analyst
Association of Milk Producers

Global Dairy Market: Milk Production Declining

In April, milk production volumes decreased in the EU, the USA, and Oceania. The decline in milk yield was influenced by a reduction in cow…

Relocation Impacts Cow Herd Dynamics

There is an ongoing decline in the cattle population in Ukraine due to a lack of state support, the war, and the relocation of farms from frontline regions to western oblasts, where an increase has been recorded, reports Georghii Kukhaleishvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers of Ukraine.

According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of July 1, 2025, Ukraine's household and industrial sectors collectively maintain 2.1695 million head of cattle, including 1.1462 million cows. Compared to June 1, 2025, the cattle population in Ukraine decreased by 400 head (-0.02%), and the number of cows decreased by 3.2 thousand head (-0.3%). Compared to July 1, 2024, the cattle population decreased by 192 thousand head (-8%), including cows by 106 thousand head (-8%). Approximately 42% of animals are kept on industrial enterprises, while 58% are in household farms.

In the industrial sector, there are 921.9 thousand head of cattle, an increase of 3 thousand head (+0.4%) compared to June 1, 2025. The cow population stands at 382.1 thousand cows, decreasing by 200 head (-0.05%) over the last month. Over the past year, the cattle population on enterprises decreased by 4 thousand head (-0.5%), but the number of cows increased by 1 thousand head (+0.3%).

The household sector contains 1.2476 million head of cattle, a decrease of 4 thousand head (-0.3%) compared to June 1, 2025. The number of cows in household farms as of July 1, 2025, was 764.1 thousand head, a decrease of 3 thousand head (-0.4%) from a month ago. Over the past year, the number of cattle in household farms decreased by 188 thousand head (-13%), and the number of cows decreased by 107 thousand head (-12%).

According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the largest increase in cow numbers was recorded at agricultural enterprises in Lviv Oblast (+11%), Khmelnytskyi Oblast (+6%), Volyn Oblast (+5%), Rivne Oblast (+4%), Vinnytsia Oblast (+3%), and Mykolaiv Oblast (+3%) compared to July 1 of last year.

Georghii Kukhaleishvili notes that the reduction in cattle numbers is a long-standing problem in Ukraine due to the lack of an effective state support program for dairy farming. The war has only worsened the situation. There is a sharp decline in livestock numbers in the East and South. Agricultural enterprises are relocating cows from Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts to safer regions of Western Ukraine amid intensified Russian missile and bomb strikes on border and frontline settlements. As a result of relocation, Zhytomyr, Ternopil, and Volyn Oblasts have joined the leading regions by livestock numbers. The largest increase in cattle population was recorded in Lviv Oblast.

Most farms in Ukraine were built in the 1970s-80s, and they no longer meet the requirements for animal housing. A shortage of suitable premises for keeping cows creates preconditions for a further reduction in livestock. Many farmers are not investing in increasing cow numbers during the war and are experiencing a deficit of working capital. According to the study "Ukraine: Impact of War on Agricultural Production Profitability," conducted by UCAAB, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, with the support of GFDRR, farmers' production costs are growing faster than prices for finished products due to rising feed costs, electricity prices, the devaluation of the hryvnia, and a decrease in the purchasing power of the population.

Regionally, approximately 55% of the total cattle population across all categories of farms is held in the following oblasts:

  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast – 197.9 thousand head;
  • Poltava Oblast – 178.5 thousand head;
  • Vinnytsia Oblast – 174 thousand head;
  • Odesa Oblast – 138.1 thousand head;
  • Ternopil Oblast – 134.6 thousand head;
  • Cherkasy Oblast – 126 thousand head;
  • Chernihiv Oblast – 125.4 thousand head.

Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers


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