Brazil, the US, and China are reducing their cattle herds amid high production costs and unfavorable weather conditions, which limits the beef supply, supports high global prices, and opens opportunities for exporters.
According to preliminary data from the State Customs Service, in September 2026, Ukraine exported about 1.17 thousand tons of live cattle, which is 11% less relative to August 2026 and 110% more relative to September 2025. However, monetary revenue for exported animals amounted to 2.93 million USD, which is 19% less relative to August 2026, but 275% more relative to September 2025. In January–September 2026, Ukraine exported 14.65 thousand tons (+10.3%) of cattle worth 35.25 million USD (+21%). During September, Ukraine supplied animals exclusively to Lebanon.
In September 2026, Ukrainian exporters shipped 515 tons of fresh or chilled beef to foreign markets, which is 9% more relative to August and 395% more relative to September 2025. Export revenue for the supplied commodity amounted to 4.15 million USD, which is 5% more relative to August and 568% more relative to September 2025. In January–September 2026, Ukraine exported 3.55 thousand tons of fresh beef worth 28.52 million USD. Ukraine increased physical volumes of fresh beef exports almost 15 times, and monetary revenue increased almost 20 times compared to last year's period. In September, Ukraine supplied fresh or chilled beef to Turkey, Georgia, Moldova, and the Marshall Islands.
Physical volumes of frozen beef exports from Ukraine in September 2026 stood at 1.64 thousand tons, which is 10% less relative to August 2026 and 40.2% more relative to September 2025. Monetary revenue for the supplied commodity amounted to almost 7.78 million USD, which is 5% less relative to August 2026, but 43% more relative to September 2025. In January–September 2026, Ukraine exported 14.39 thousand tons (+4%) of frozen beef worth 65.35 million USD (+15%). Ukraine supplied frozen beef to 16 countries in Europe and Asia. The top 5 destinations by export revenue received by Ukraine for exported red meat included Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, China, Georgia, and Kazakhstan.
For Ukrainian exporters of beef and cattle, quite attractive conditions exist in export markets amid high global prices. The global red meat market has come under pressure from rising production costs and unfavorable weather conditions. The three largest beef producers — Brazil, the US, and China, which together account for more than half of global production — are reducing their cattle herds and will likely cut slaughter volumes in 2026. The deficit is felt most acutely in China, which is the world's largest consumer and importer of beef. The reduction in domestic production together with smaller available import volumes led to a sharp increase in prices.
In Brazil, the reason for the reduction in cattle slaughter was the natural herd rebuilding cycle. Farmers retain more females for breeding instead of sending them to slaughter. This approach helps rebuild the herd in the future, but results in a temporary limitation of the beef supply on the market.
A similar situation has developed in the US, where multi-year droughts and high production costs have exacerbated the cattle shortage. American producers oppose the Trump administration's initiative to increase beef imports to lower retail meat prices. In their view, cheaper imported products could lead to lower livestock prices and restrain the recovery of the national herd.
At the same time, it is impossible to quickly scale up beef production. Years can pass between a farmer's decision to increase the herd and the appearance of additional animals on the market. To rebuild the herd, producers need to retain cows for reproduction, spend money on their maintenance, and wait for subsequent generations of livestock. Therefore, even high prices do not guarantee a rapid increase in supply.
In the EU, the situation in the beef and cattle market differs somewhat due to changing consumer preferences. In 2025, the EU produced about 42.7 million tons of meat. At the same time, by 2035, total beef production may decrease by 10%. Most likely, beef consumption in the EU will also decline, whereas demand for poultry meat may increase by 9% by 2035. Unlike cattle and pigs, chickens reach market weight in a few weeks and cost less.
In September 2026, Ukraine imported no cattle. Chilled beef import volumes stood at 20 tons, which is 122% more relative to August and 82% more relative to September 2025. Frozen beef imports stood at 186 tons, which is 121% more relative to August and 158% more relative to September 2025. Over the 9 months of 2026, Ukraine reduced import volumes of cattle to 93 tons (-82%), frozen beef to 940 tons (-12%), but increased chilled beef import volumes to 119 tons (+12%) relative to last year's period.
The foreign trade balance in September 2026 was positive and stood at plus 12.95 million USD.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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