The commercial sector boosted raw milk production in May, partially offsetting the decline in yields from household plots. However, without investments in processing, the dairy industry risks losing its potential. Against the backdrop of rising on-farm production costs and Euro-integration challenges, the key conditions for stability remain efficiency improvements, investment attraction, and state support.
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, in May 2026, farms of all categories produced 585.70 thousand tons of raw milk, which is 57.7 thousand tons more (+10.9%) compared to April, but 99.8 thousand tons less (-14.6%) than in May 2025. In January–May 2026, Ukraine produced 2.42 million tons of raw milk, which is 318.6 thousand tons less (-12%) compared to the same period last year. In May 2026, the share of commercial enterprises in raw milk production stood at 49%, while household plots accounted for 51%.
Commercial enterprises produced 287.80 thousand tons of raw milk in May 2026, which is 9.9 thousand tons more (+3.6%) compared to April and 17.7 thousand tons more (+6.6%) than in May 2025. In January–May 2026, commercial dairy farms produced 1.37 million tons of raw milk, up 48.3 thousand tons (+4%) compared to the previous year's period.
In household plots, milk yields in May 2026 totaled 297.90 thousand tons of raw milk, which is 47.8 thousand tons more (+19.1%) compared to April, but 117.5 thousand tons less (-28.3%) than in May 2025. In January–May 2026, households produced 1.05 million tons of raw milk, down 366.9 thousand tons (-26%) compared to the same period last year.
The decline in milk production volumes continues in Ukraine, predominantly driven by the household sector. Commercial dairy farms managed to partially compensate for these losses due to rising productivity. The average cow productivity in Ukraine in 2025 stood at 8,247 kg. The commercial sector demonstrated growth in milk production volumes, which subsequently supply dairy processing plants, entering the "large milk" (flush) season. The growth of yields in the industrial sector since the beginning of the year became possible despite the loss of dairy farms in the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as well as significant damage to enterprises in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions from Russian strikes.
However, without investments in processing, the dairy sector risks losing its potential. The price of milk is not determined at the farm gate but at the dairy processing plant. It is the level of product value-added that dictates the price a factory can offer to a supplier. Raw material quality can affect the final price, but key price formation happens precisely at the processing level. In the absence of additional financing and the modernization of dairy plants toward deep milk processing, Ukraine risks reducing its commercial milk production by 2035.
Ukrainian dairy cattle farming is characterized by relatively high productivity, the implementation of animal welfare standards, and a gradual transition to Extra-grade milk production. Nevertheless, rising production costs on farms due to higher fuel and fertilizer prices, along with the consequences of the Euro-integration process, pose risks to the dairy sector. On one hand, the cost of production is increasing due to new regulatory requirements, while on the other hand, the farm-gate purchase price has not yet reached EU levels.
To avoid a negative scenario similar to the experience of Romania and Bulgaria, where milk production dropped by half after joining the EU, it is necessary to focus on increasing efficiency and investing in the industry. A clear understanding of EU regulatory requirements, realistic timelines for their implementation, and a sufficient level of state and international support are vital.
Milk is no longer the sole source of farm income, as it accounts for only 50–60% of revenue. Additional income streams for farmers now include bioenergy production, the use of organic fertilizers and soil restoration, as well as the development of breeding and beef business lines.
In January–May 2026, agricultural enterprises in 13 regions increased their raw milk production volumes compared to the same period last year, namely: Rivne region (+36%), Ivano-Frankivsk region (+17%), Lviv region (+14%), Ternopil region (+13%), Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions (+12%), Vinnytsia region (+6%), Mykolaiv region (+5%), Cherkasy region (+4%), Volyn and Khmelnytskyi regions (+2%), Kyiv region (+1.5%), and Kirovohrad region (+1%).
In January–May 2026, approximately 55% of raw milk was produced by agricultural enterprises in the following regions:
- Poltava region – 197.80 thousand tons;
- Cherkasy region – 166.90 thousand tons;
- Chernihiv region – 131.20 thousand tons;
- Khmelnytskyi region – 129.00 thousand tons;
- Vinnytsia region – 124.90 thousand tons.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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