Hanna Lavreniuk, General Director of the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), emphasized during the "Dairy Business 2025" conference that the ongoing decline in raw milk prices creates critical risks for the survival of dairy farms in 2026, the fulfillment of European requirements, and the preservation of exports to the EU.
On December 11, AMP Director General Hanna Lavreniuk participated in the "Dairy Business 2025" conference, organized by the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEU) in cooperation with the analytical agency Infagro.
During the panel discussion on industry challenges, opportunities, and prospects for the dairy sector, Ms. Lavreniuk highlighted several key points:
The rapid decline in raw milk prices could, as early as spring 2026, wipe out all the industry's achievements in increasing industrial milk supplies, improving cow productivity, and growing the share of Extra-grade milk.
At a raw milk price of 15-16 UAH/kg, even high-yielding and large-scale dairy farms in Ukraine (which account for about 10% of the milk supply structure) are operating at the break-even point or at a loss. They are halting all investments in modernization required to meet EU animal welfare standards for cattle, cutting costs to the maximum, and entering "survival mode."
Furthermore, under the terms of DCFTA-2, increasing export quotas for dairy products to the EU is only possible if EU requirements for cattle welfare and veterinary control are fully implemented by December 31, 2028. Otherwise, quotas will be reduced. Therefore, the ability of farms to implement EU requirements should be among the top priorities for dairy processing plants as well!
At a price of 15-16 UAH/kg for raw milk, smaller farms (up to 500 cows), which supply over 42% of milk for processing, are unequivocally operating at a loss. They already face a choice: whether to sow corn for silage in spring 2026 or to sell off their cows while live-weight prices hold, as they will lack the funds to adapt to Euro-requirements anyway. The ongoing grueling war and blackouts further diminish confidence in business survival.
This is precisely why, during a joint meeting with the UDEU Board of Directors on November 4, 2025, the AMP Board emphasized the critical importance of maintaining a price corridor of 16-16.5 UAH/kg for milk until the end of Q1-2026.
Ms. Lavreniuk pointed out the inaccuracy of the operating margin calculations for dairy farms by @Ion Moraru (used by the UDEU) and called for a comparison of methodologies with GAF Dairy Benchmarking. She expressed conviction that dairy plants are building a false perception of the farms' "margin of safety."
She underscored the expectations of leading global analytical agencies that the dairy crisis—driven by the pressure of global commodity surpluses—is temporary. By September 2026, the world expects a return to the trend of unmet demand for dairy products and raw milk, within which Ukraine's dairy industry has excellent prospects.
"Therefore, the key task for the industry in the first half of 2026 is to SURVIVE! To achieve this, everyone (farms and plants alike) must do their homework: increasing efficiency at all levels, precise planning and cooperation, as well as partnership in the fight for the domestic market—countering smuggling and counterfeit dairy products that steal market share from domestic producers," Hanna Lavreniuk concluded.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
Follow us on LinkedIn
Related News
- Compensation for Frontline Farms Will Only Fully Work with Insurance and a Market Free of Counterfeit Goods, Says Denys Marchuk
- GDT Auction: Fats and Milk Powder Collapse Prices
